Date: 23/12/2011
Istanbul – Turkey 23 December, 2011 During the last few decades, the countries of the Middle East have certainly suffered under a string of appalling regimes. But this is also a region where debates over how to limit the power of rulers starting from the Tanzimat reforms in 1839 in the Ottoman Empire and later the constitutional reforms in Tunisia and Egypt in the late 1870. It also led to the establishment of a constitution in the Ottoman Empire in 1876. At that time the Ottoman Empire included not only today’s Turkey but most of the Arab world. Later, Iran in 1906 established a constitutional regime, that was abolished in 1950 when the rule of the nationalist Musaddaq we toppled by American intervention. What is unique about the “Arab Spring”, is that the revolts in these countries were internal ones, with no link in its preparation, or masterminding with any outside forces. Now it is expected that the fall of the free regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya will lead to a democratic change in the regional map of internal or external alliances. The immediate result of these revolutions was the fact that it instilled in Arab populations a sense of pride in shaking off decades of cowed passivity under dictatorships that ruled them. Moreover, Western media started to cover Arab events in the Middle East more frequently and more positively. A change of perception about the Arabs is clearly emerging. Transformation has barely begun, and one is inclined to wait and see. It is not wise to judge the so-called “Arab Spring”, and foretell its impact on the Arab region. We cannot tell for sure when it will end. We cannot predict if we have to live through another year of revolution or ten year. But it is useful to try to understand this phenomena which resonate across the globe and its impact is no more limited to the Arabic region. First, we have to differentiate between evolution and revolutions. We have to explore the reasons that unleashed this unexpected Arab awakening. This awakening cannot be compared to the revolution of the “East European Spring” that occurred in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, because its influence on the world’s affairs remained subdued and very limited. The Arab world was directly impacted by the Tunisian revolution in various manners. To fathom the uniqueness of the Arab Stream revolution, one should look at the huge effort put to remove Saddam Hussain from power. It took from the United States twenty difficult and long years to do so. It started by the war to liberate Kuwait in 1990, to be followed by thirteen years of imposing sanction, and no-fly zone, and eight years of outright occupation. In the Arab uprising we are watching the collapse of well entrenched and strong regimes like the Tunisian Benali, Egyptian Mubarak, and Libyan Kaddafi, to be followed by the regime of Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and Bashar Assad in Syria. These downfalls are huge in their volume, and unexpected and surprising in their timing. But we have to ponder the multiple causes and reasons combined that led to this astounding result in the Arab world. Among these causes we can discern the refusal of rotating the power, the manipulation of governance, corruption, poverty, unemployment, the marginalization of the fringe segments of population and minorities, as well as the youth. The commonalities between these countries, is that those who led the revolutions are the youth who represent 70% of the population, who were governed by a segment of aged population that represent less than 7% of population. The point that I consider as the most important, is the collective consciousness of the people. In the case of Tunisia for example, people’s revolt occurred after a suicide of a young man was who was deprived from the means of subsistence. On the basis of the aforesaid, one can assert that the popular protest in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya was an internal revolt with no link to outside forces. Now it is expected that the fall of these regimes will lead to a dramatic change in the regional map of internal and external alliances. It is feared that Iraq will come under Iran power influence and will give Iran a tremendous influence in the region. Nothing had been resolved in any Arab countries not even in Tunisia or Egypt. Real transformation has barely begun. All can turn sour. As people of the West learn more about this crucially important part of the world. There are a few more truths that should be transmitted. One is that this is not a region that is uniquely unsuited to democracy, or has no constitutionally, tradition, or has always suffered under autocratic rulers. In Egypt the revolt started following a death of a political activist in a police station. A strange outcome seems to be emerging from the Arab uprising. There is no denial that this uprising was conceived, mastermind and implemented by the youth who were secular, enlightened with an inclination toward modernization. After the good performance of “Islamist” in Tunisia, they are now on the verge of a similar victory in Egypt, Libya and possibly elsewhere. How have the “Islamists” managed to amass the fruits of what the secular youth, have planted. The first free and fair election in Tunisia, gave the majority to the Islamist who called their party “Nahda”. But the question remain, are the leaders of Nahda today the same leaders who used to call themselves the party of the Islamic Tawheed? Did not they change during the last thirty years of persecution, suffering and difficult struggle? Did not they learn lessons from difficulties and from living under democratic regimes in Europe?. Did not they live democracy in action in England, France and Germany? They must have learned lessons in good governance and changed their views about governance and embraced the values of the twenty first century of diversity, pluralism and the recognition of the other. The Islamists movements in the Arab spring countries should represent an enlightened Islam, far from bigotry and extremism. In conclusion it seems that we are heading towards a new era of the teaching of Islam during which an enlightened Islamic interpretation will be one of the dominant factors of the political life in the Arab-stream countries.